Poll after poll returns YES vote

In the debate on Scottish independence, there seems to be a new article indicating No ahead in the polls every week at the moment.

While recent weeks has shown an increase in the Yes vote in these polls - thanks to the aggravating scare tactics of George Osborne and the rest of the Together Or Else campaign - the trend of poll after poll showing the unionist campaign in the lead has made for depressing and demotivational reading. Perhaps that's the idea...

How much weight should we really place in these polls? They typically come from a sample of a thousand or so voters. While this method has previously given us an accurate picture of voter intention for elections, it is far from infallible.

One look at this collection of polls in the leadup to the 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections proves that. As little as a month before the SNP won 45.39% of the vote to Labour's 31.69% , Panelbase had Labour neck and neck with the SNP; while just two months before, one poll showed 29% for SNP and 44% for Labour.

Clearly, alternative means of accurately gauging opinion are welcome. I've tried to collect as many different online votes, debate results and other means of surveying voters on the subject. The result is illuminating, almost always showing a completely different outcome for the Yes and No parties than the polls run in the media frequently show.

The first comes from the Channel 4 website, following Jon Snow's grilling of Alistair Darling.
Viewers quizzed on their voting intentions in the wake of it, via the Channel 4 website, came out in favour of Yes - overwhelmingly.

11,939 said they planned to vote Yes, while just 2,406 opted for No - giving Yes a huge 83% victory.

Another interesting sample of opinion came to light after the Donside by election of 20th June, 2013. In what is to date the largest survey conducted on the subject, the SNP canvassed 19,183 voters and found the result stood at Yes 34%, No 29%, Don't know 37%.

Debates around the country have also typically disagreed with the verdict of the media polls.
Strathclyde University's Students Association have held several debates, all emerging in favour of Yes. One saw a 12% change, resulting in 67% of the vote for Yes.

Napier University, meanwhile, produced a Yes vote of 80% in November 2013. (No figures available on how many participated)

The debate at Abertay University of September 2013 was a particularly encouraging result for the Yes campaign. Before the debate, a temperature check of the 200 students present showed 21% of the audience voting Yes, 59% No and 20% undecided. However, following the debate, this figure changed to 51% yes, 38% no, and 11% undecided.

Another such turnaround occurred at Ayrshire College's Kilmarnock Campus in January 2014. Beforehand the vote stood at 50% for No, 33% for Yes and 17% undecided. After the debate, the votes returned 46% Yes, 43% No and 11% undecided.

The Glasgow Caledonian University Students Association debate vote showed 62% of around 80 students voting Yes, 18% No and 20% Undecided.

Votes returning No as a result of debates are hard to come by. There was a No result following the debate in Perth & Kinross, with 51% ultimately voting against - however, the Yes vote did grow from 31% to 46%. Another No vote occurred at the University of Glasgow, where 62% (1614) voted no, while 38% (967) said yes.

Yes campaigners such as Yes Scotland and Business For Scotland argue that the more people engage with the debate and learn about the opportunities which come with independence, the more inclined they are to vote Yes - and these figures make it hard to argue with that.

East Kilbride Revenue & Customs branch of the Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) recently voted to back Yes. At their AGM, 570 voters returned a result of 60% for Yes, with No and remaining neutral each attracting 20%

At its nationwide conference however, PCS voted to back the neutral option with 18,025 votes. The Yes vote attracted 5,775, while there was not a single vote in favour of supporting No.

There are also huge numbers of Scots registered on the websites of their favourite football teams, almost all of whom have produced Yes results in their own online polls.

The following football message boards have all produced Yes results: Talk Celtic (80.61%), Pie & Bovril (78.3%), KillieFC (69.95%), Partick Thistle's We Are Thistle (68.25%), St Mirren's Black & White Army (67.94%) Hibees Bounce (67.86%), Aberdeen's AFC Chat (64.71%), Caley Thistle Online (62.34%), Hearts' Jambos Kickback (53.10%).

In fact, the only major Scottish football side whose message board has produced a resounding No result is The Rangers, with the Rangers Media forum producing a vote of Yes 18%, No 71.67%, Devo Max 3.83% (not set to be an option in the actual ballot) and Undecided 6.5%. Ross County's Over The Bridge also returned No, with Yes losing narrowly, 42% vs 50%.

I'll be continuing to collect results from online surveys, debates, message boards and so on as we get closer to the independence referendum. If you have any polls that I've missed, whether Yes or No victories, then please get in touch and I'll include them.

All of this provides a refreshing alternative to the barrage of No-favouring polls that the media run with and ultimately begs the question: where are the pollsters finding these 1,000 voters and who the hell are they...?

UPDATE 25/02/2014: Queen Margaret University held a debate in which 150 voted, producing 59% Yes, 41% No. Oil And Gas People, the world's leading oil and gas jobs board, surveyed 1,000 North Sea Oil and Gas workers and found 70% supported independence.

UPDATE 03/03/2014: Possibly the least scientific but best idea for a poll yet - the Royal McGregor bar has had customers choosing between taps marked 'Aye', 'Naw' and 'Maybe.' Aye won 41%, with 38% Naw and 21% Maybe! That's about as alternative from the media polls as it gets...

UPDATE 21/03/2014: Dundee and Angus colleges produced a whopping 83% Yes, 11% No, 6% DK. St Mary's church hall in Kirkintilloch put Yes at 63% with No on 24% and undecideds at 13%. After a debate held at Campbeltown Grammar School, a ballot put Yes at 51%, with No on 28% and undecideds on 19%. Glasgow City Chambers saw Yes win 64% of the vote, with No scoring only 15%.